While various risks and uncertainties could cloud the global economic outlook in 2025, CEMEA's diverse economies are poised for growth and transformation. From post-conflict recovery to tourism booms and technology revolutions, the region presents a dynamic mix of opportunities and challenges, explains Mohamed Bardastani, Visa's Principal Economist for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa
Despite a complex and challenging global economic landscape, the real story of 2025 is one of remarkable resilience and a shifting global balance. Worldwide, a 3.3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected,¹ with established economies like the US, India, and the GCC poised for robust expansion, while Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean anticipate more moderate gains. But the true dynamism lies in emerging markets across Asia and Africa. There, rising incomes, burgeoning middle classes, and the digital revolution — marked by increasing internet penetration — are not just driving local economies but reshaping the global stage, creating vibrant new markets for goods and services.
CEMEA poised for economic acceleration in 2025, though not without challenges
In Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEMEA) GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 2.8% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025.² This upward trend is consistent with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) anticipating a remarkable growth rate of 4.7%, significantly above its pre-pandemic average of 2.5%. Similarly, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Southeast Europe (CISSEE) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are projected to achieve growth rates of 4.3% and 3.6%, respectively, both surpassing their pre-pandemic averages. North Africa, Levant, and Pakistan (NALP) is also expected to match its pre-pandemic average growth of approximately 3.2%.
While overall economic projections remain favorable, the region faces substantial challenges, including elevated consumer prices, high inflation, imbalances in government finances, build-up in public debt, high youth unemployment and potential social instability. This calls for a more cautious and measured approach to economic policy to ensure mitigation of these risks and the promotion of sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
